Splits our home-side picks from our away-side picks. If one side wins markedly more than the other, the model is mis-pricing home-court advantage.
MLBHome win
Win rate52.2%
Hits / attempts165 / 316
MLBHome win
Win rate47.3%
Hits / attempts87 / 184
NBAHome win
Win rate43.8%
Hits / attempts7 / 16
NBAHome win
Win rate66.7%
Hits / attempts4 / 6
Last 7 days
Recent trend
Moneyline · win rate
League
Model
Win rate
Hits / attempts
Settled
Avg confidence
MLB
elo-v1
52.0%
40 / 77
77
53.9%
MLB
elo-v1.1
52.0%
40 / 77
77
53.9%
NBA
elo-v1
Sample too small (n=2)
1 / 2
2
60.1%
NBA
elo-v1.1
Sample too small (n=2)
1 / 2
2
60.1%
Total · MAE error
League
Model
MAE
Bias
Scored
Avg confidence
MLB
poisson-v1
3.23
+1.06
77
67.3%
NBA
poisson-v1
Sample too small (n=2)
-19.20
2
93.3%
Last 30 days
Monthly trend
Moneyline · win rate
League
Model
Win rate
Hits / attempts
Settled
Avg confidence
MLB
elo-v1
52.2%
165 / 316
316
53.6%
MLB
elo-v1.1
47.3%
87 / 184
184
53.6%
NBA
elo-v1
Sample too small (n=16)
7 / 16
16
63.0%
NBA
elo-v1.1
Sample too small (n=6)
4 / 6
6
58.7%
Total · MAE error
League
Model
MAE
Bias
Scored
Avg confidence
MLB
poisson-v1
3.53
-0.14
316
66.9%
NBA
poisson-v1
Sample too small (n=16)
+0.91
16
93.3%
Season
All-time
Moneyline · win rate
League
Model
Win rate
Hits / attempts
Settled
Avg confidence
MLB
elo-v1
52.2%
165 / 316
316
53.6%
MLB
elo-v1.1
47.3%
87 / 184
184
53.6%
NBA
elo-v1
Sample too small (n=16)
7 / 16
16
63.0%
NBA
elo-v1.1
Sample too small (n=6)
4 / 6
6
58.7%
Total · MAE error
League
Model
MAE
Bias
Scored
Avg confidence
MLB
poisson-v1
3.53
-0.14
316
66.9%
NBA
poisson-v1
Sample too small (n=16)
+0.91
16
93.3%
Perfect calibration
Confidence calibration
When we say '70% to win,' how often do those teams actually win? Points hugging the dashed line mean the model's confidence is honest. Blue = beats prediction (under-confident), red = worse than prediction (over-confident), green = within ±5%.
Moneyline model · 522 settled games (voids excluded)