Splits our home-side picks from our away-side picks. If one side wins markedly more than the other, the model is mis-pricing home-court advantage.
MLBAway win
Win rate57.8%
Hits / attempts26 / 45
MLBHome win
Win rate52.4%
Hits / attempts451 / 860
NBAHome win
Win rate40.0%
Hits / attempts10 / 25
Last 7 days
Recent trend
Moneyline · win rate
League
Model
Win rate
Hits / attempts
Settled
Avg confidence
MLB
elo-v1
57.8%
26 / 45
45
53.0%
Total · MAE error
No total settlements yet
Last 30 days
Monthly trend
Moneyline · win rate
League
Model
Win rate
Hits / attempts
Settled
Avg confidence
MLB
elo-v1
52.3%
224 / 428
439
53.4%
NBA
elo-v1
Sample too small (n=19)
3 / 9
19
59.8%
Total · MAE error
No total settlements yet
Season
All-time
Moneyline · win rate
League
Model
Win rate
Hits / attempts
Settled
Avg confidence
MLB
elo-v1
52.7%
477 / 905
916
53.5%
NBA
elo-v1
40.0%
10 / 25
35
61.3%
Total · MAE error
No total settlements yet
World Cup 1X2 (90-minute win-draw-loss)
Brier is a three-class normalized score (0–1, lower is better); not yet benchmarked against a favourite baseline or market odds.
1X2 · win rate
League
Model
Win rate
Hits / attempts
Brier
Settled
FIFA World Cup
wc-elo-v1
62.0%
57 / 92
0.2567
92
Secondary markets (season)
Spread Brier uses the model's cover probability (0.25 ≈ coin flip, lower is better). Same auto-settled data as above, published unfiltered.
Spread · win rate + Brier
No spread settlements yet
First-half winner · win rate
No first-half winner settlements yet
First-half + team totals · MAE error
No first-half / team total settlements yet
Perfect calibration
Confidence calibration
When we say '70% to win,' how often do those teams actually win? Points hugging the dashed line mean the model's confidence is honest. Blue = beats prediction (under-confident), red = worse than prediction (over-confident), green = within ±5%.
Moneyline model · 930 settled games (voids excluded)