Recent trend
| League | Model | Win rate | Hits / attempts | Settled | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | elo-v1 | 49.0% | 25 / 51 | 51 | 58.8% |
| NHL | elo-v1 | 67.4% | 31 / 46 | 46 | 55.9% |
| LOL | lol-elo-v1 | 58.3% | 14 / 24 | 24 | 66.2% |
| NFL | elo-v1 | 57.1% | 8 / 14 | 14 | 60.8% |
| NBL | elo-v1 | 57.1% | 4 / 7 | 7 | 66.2% |
| KBO | elo-v1 | 50.0% | 1 / 2 | 4 | 52.7% |
| MLB | elo-v1 | 66.7% | 2 / 3 | 4 | 55.6% |
| NPB | elo-v1 | 100.0% | 2 / 2 | 2 | 56.4% |
| League | Model | MAE | Bias | Scored | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 55.2% |
| KBO | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 50.5% |
| MLB | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 56.1% |
| NPB | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 50.3% |
| NBA | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 55.5% |
| BUNDESLIGA | bundesliga-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 54.2% |
| CHAMPIONS-LEAGUE | champions-league-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 57.0% |
| PREMIER-LEAGUE | epl-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.6% |
| EREDIVISIE | eredivisie-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.6% |
| EUROPA-LEAGUE | europa-league-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.6% |
| J1-LEAGUE | j1-league-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.6% |
| LA-LIGA | laliga-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.6% |
| LIGUE-1 | ligue1-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.6% |
| MLS | mls-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.6% |
| PRIMEIRA-LIGA | primeira-liga-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.6% |
| SERIE-A | seriea-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.6% |
| NHL | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 56.7% |
Monthly trend
| League | Model | Win rate | Hits / attempts | Settled | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL | elo-v1 | 70.9% | 56 / 79 | 79 | 56.0% |
| MLB | elo-v1 | 60.0% | 33 / 55 | 67 | 54.2% |
| NBA | elo-v1 | 52.3% | 34 / 65 | 65 | 58.8% |
| LOL | lol-elo-v1 | 59.4% | 19 / 32 | 32 | 66.2% |
| NFL | elo-v1 | 50.0% | 14 / 28 | 28 | 63.2% |
| NBL | elo-v1 | 66.7% | 8 / 12 | 12 | 66.5% |
| KBO | elo-v1 | 50.0% | 1 / 2 | 4 | 52.7% |
| NPB | elo-v1 | 100.0% | 2 / 2 | 2 | 56.4% |
| League | Model | MAE | Bias | Scored | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 55.3% |
| KBO | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 50.5% |
| MLB | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 56.3% |
| NPB | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 50.3% |
| NBA | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 55.2% |
| BUNDESLIGA | bundesliga-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 54.8% |
| CHAMPIONS-LEAGUE | champions-league-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 57.0% |
| PREMIER-LEAGUE | epl-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.7% |
| EREDIVISIE | eredivisie-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 57.0% |
| EUROPA-LEAGUE | europa-league-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 54.1% |
| J1-LEAGUE | j1-league-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.3% |
| LA-LIGA | laliga-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 54.7% |
| LIGUE-1 | ligue1-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.3% |
| MLS | mls-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 56.4% |
| PRIMEIRA-LIGA | primeira-liga-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.3% |
| SERIE-A | seriea-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.7% |
| NHL | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 54.6% |
All-time
| League | Model | Win rate | Hits / attempts | Settled | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | elo-v1 | 54.4% | 1019 / 1875 | 1898 | 53.8% |
| NBA | elo-v1 | 48.9% | 44 / 90 | 100 | 59.7% |
| NHL | elo-v1 | 70.9% | 56 / 79 | 79 | 56.0% |
| LOL | lol-elo-v1 | 59.4% | 19 / 32 | 32 | 66.2% |
| NFL | elo-v1 | 50.0% | 14 / 28 | 28 | 63.2% |
| NBL | elo-v1 | 66.7% | 8 / 12 | 12 | 66.5% |
| KBO | elo-v1 | 50.0% | 1 / 2 | 4 | 52.7% |
| NPB | elo-v1 | 100.0% | 2 / 2 | 2 | 56.4% |
| League | Model | MAE | Bias | Scored | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUNDESLIGA | bundesliga-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 54.8% |
| CHAMPIONS-LEAGUE | champions-league-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 57.0% |
| EREDIVISIE | eredivisie-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 57.0% |
| EUROPA-LEAGUE | europa-league-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 54.1% |
| J1-LEAGUE | j1-league-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.3% |
| KBO | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 50.5% |
| LA-LIGA | laliga-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 54.7% |
| LIGUE-1 | ligue1-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.3% |
| MLB | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 56.3% |
| MLS | mls-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 56.4% |
| NBA | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 55.2% |
| NFL | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 55.3% |
| NHL | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 54.6% |
| NPB | score-model-v1 | — | — | 0 | 50.3% |
| PREMIER-LEAGUE | epl-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.7% |
| PRIMEIRA-LIGA | primeira-liga-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.3% |
| SERIE-A | seriea-elo-v1 | — | — | 0 | 53.7% |
| League | Model | Win rate | Hits / attempts | Brier | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup | wc-elo-v1 | 62.0% | 57 / 92 | 0.2567 | 92 |
| LaLiga | laliga-elo-v1 | 52.8% | 47 / 89 | 0.2769 | 90 |
| Ligue 1 | ligue1-elo-v1 | 54.9% | 39 / 71 | 0.2979 | 72 |
| Premier League | epl-elo-v1 | 45.7% | 32 / 70 | 0.3165 | 70 |
| Serie A | seriea-elo-v1 | 57.1% | 40 / 70 | 0.2751 | 70 |
| Bundesliga | bundesliga-elo-v1 | 49.2% | 31 / 63 | 0.2993 | 63 |
| UEFA Europa League | europa-league-elo-v1 | 55.6% | 20 / 36 | 0.2791 | 36 |
| MLS | mls-elo-v1 | 35.5% | 11 / 31 | 0.3470 | 31 |
| J1 League | j1-league-elo-v1 | 50.0% | 15 / 30 | 0.2993 | 30 |
| UEFA Champions League | champions-league-elo-v1 | 61.1% | 11 / 18 | 0.2482 | 18 |
| Eredivisie | eredivisie-elo-v1 | 44.4% | 8 / 18 | 0.3241 | 18 |
| Primeira Liga | primeira-liga-elo-v1 | 40.0% | 4 / 10 | 0.3546 | 10 |
| League | Model | Win rate | Hits / attempts | Brier | Avg cover prob | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL | score-model-v1 | 69.6% | 55 / 79 | — | — | 79 |
| NBA | score-model-v1 | 50.8% | 33 / 65 | — | — | 65 |
| EUROPA-LEAGUE | europa-league-elo-v1 | 50.0% | 18 / 36 | — | — | 36 |
| MLS | mls-elo-v1 | 61.3% | 19 / 31 | — | — | 31 |
| J1-LEAGUE | j1-league-elo-v1 | 46.7% | 14 / 30 | — | — | 30 |
| NFL | score-model-v1 | 44.4% | 12 / 27 | — | — | 28 |
| LA-LIGA | laliga-elo-v1 | 57.1% | 12 / 21 | — | — | 21 |
| PREMIER-LEAGUE | epl-elo-v1 | 45.0% | 9 / 20 | — | — | 20 |
| SERIE-A | seriea-elo-v1 | 50.0% | 10 / 20 | — | — | 20 |
| BUNDESLIGA | bundesliga-elo-v1 | 50.0% | 9 / 18 | — | — | 18 |
| CHAMPIONS-LEAGUE | champions-league-elo-v1 | 55.6% | 10 / 18 | — | — | 18 |
| EREDIVISIE | eredivisie-elo-v1 | 72.2% | 13 / 18 | — | — | 18 |
| LIGUE-1 | ligue1-elo-v1 | 44.4% | 8 / 18 | — | — | 18 |
| MLB | score-model-v1 | 75.0% | 6 / 8 | — | — | 10 |
| PRIMEIRA-LIGA | primeira-liga-elo-v1 | 50.0% | 5 / 10 | — | — | 10 |
| KBO | score-model-v1 | 0.0% | 0 / 2 | — | — | 4 |
| NPB | score-model-v1 | 50.0% | 1 / 2 | — | — | 2 |
| League | Model | Win rate | Hits / attempts | Settled | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | score-model-v1 | 51.6% | 33 / 64 | 65 | 51.1% |
| NFL | score-model-v1 | 70.8% | 17 / 24 | 28 | 56.0% |
| NBL | score-model-v1 | 58.3% | 7 / 12 | 12 | 53.0% |
| League | Model | Market | MAE | Bias | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUNDESLIGA | bundesliga-elo-v1 | First-half total | — | — | 0 |
| BUNDESLIGA | bundesliga-elo-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| BUNDESLIGA | bundesliga-elo-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
| CHAMPIONS-LEAGUE | champions-league-elo-v1 | First-half total | — | — | 0 |
| CHAMPIONS-LEAGUE | champions-league-elo-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| CHAMPIONS-LEAGUE | champions-league-elo-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
| EREDIVISIE | eredivisie-elo-v1 | First-half total | — | — | 0 |
| EREDIVISIE | eredivisie-elo-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| EREDIVISIE | eredivisie-elo-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
| EUROPA-LEAGUE | europa-league-elo-v1 | First-half total | — | — | 0 |
| EUROPA-LEAGUE | europa-league-elo-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| EUROPA-LEAGUE | europa-league-elo-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
| J1-LEAGUE | j1-league-elo-v1 | First-half total | — | — | 0 |
| J1-LEAGUE | j1-league-elo-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| J1-LEAGUE | j1-league-elo-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
| KBO | score-model-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| KBO | score-model-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
| LA-LIGA | laliga-elo-v1 | First-half total | — | — | 0 |
| LA-LIGA | laliga-elo-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| LA-LIGA | laliga-elo-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
| LIGUE-1 | ligue1-elo-v1 | First-half total | — | — | 0 |
| LIGUE-1 | ligue1-elo-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| LIGUE-1 | ligue1-elo-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
| MLB | score-model-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| MLB | score-model-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
| MLS | mls-elo-v1 | First-half total | — | — | 0 |
| MLS | mls-elo-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| MLS | mls-elo-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
| NBA | score-model-v1 | First-half total | — | — | 0 |
| NBA | score-model-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| NBA | score-model-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
| NFL | score-model-v1 | First-half total | — | — | 0 |
| NFL | score-model-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| NFL | score-model-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
| NHL | score-model-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| NHL | score-model-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
| NPB | score-model-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| NPB | score-model-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
| PREMIER-LEAGUE | epl-elo-v1 | First-half total | — | — | 0 |
| PREMIER-LEAGUE | epl-elo-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| PREMIER-LEAGUE | epl-elo-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
| PRIMEIRA-LIGA | primeira-liga-elo-v1 | First-half total | — | — | 0 |
| PRIMEIRA-LIGA | primeira-liga-elo-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| PRIMEIRA-LIGA | primeira-liga-elo-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
| SERIE-A | seriea-elo-v1 | First-half total | — | — | 0 |
| SERIE-A | seriea-elo-v1 | Away team total | — | — | 0 |
| SERIE-A | seriea-elo-v1 | Home team total | — | — | 0 |
Perfect calibration
When we say '70% to win,' how often do those teams actually win? Points hugging the dashed line mean the model's confidence is honest. Blue = beats prediction (under-confident), red = worse than prediction (over-confident), green = within ±5%.
Moneyline model · 2120 settled games (voids excluded)